I get a kick out of handicapping upcoming elections so I spend a lot of time asking people who they’re going to vote for. The most common response that I’ve been getting is that the first two or three candidates worthy of a vote are pretty easy but it gets difficult to select six. What one is then left with is to pick the five candidates that you really don’t want and vote for the other six. But this strikes a lot of people as a very negative approach so they decide to just vote for the three or four that they really like and forget about who else wins. I’ve been trying to figure out whether this approach favours outspoken candidates or more middle of the road types.
In the last election there were 1573 voters who could have each voted six times for councillors but only 8,103 votes were cast so 1,365 votes never happened. The successful candidate with the least votes was Liza Barrett with 652 votes. The unsuccessful candidate with the most votes was Bruce Howlett with 638 votes. Considering that the difference was only 14 votes, you may want to think twice before you leave the last vote to chance.
Back to handicapping: Normally the incumbents have the edge over newcomers but giving the Cape Roger Curtis by-law first reading was such a bonehead move that many of us are looking for some fresh faces that are hopefully less inclined to be led along by consultants and staff. I’m predicting that Nerys Poole and Doug Hooper will top the polls. Nerys because her legal background and quiet strength are just what council needs and Doug because he understands what Bowen is all about, he is well respected and he has articulated a very clear platform that is hard to argue with.
If this happens it will mean that at least one incumbent isn’t going to be invited back. I’m pretty sure that David Wrinch is safe. While the rest of council debates who should do something David just goes out and does it. The new recycling depot and the ferry waiting area were two of the very few bricks and mortar accomplishments of the last term and David was the champion on council for both of them.
If my reading of the tea leaves is correct it leaves us with three remaining seats and eight people hoping to fill them. While I think I know who the winners will be, I’m prepared to be surprised.
There is going to be an all-candidates meeting at Cates Hill Chapel on Sunday at 2:00. The Cape Roger Curtis proposal is the primary topic to be discussed. My guess is that this is going to be excellent theatre and a great opportunity for us to let our future councillors know what we think. Try to make it. It’s going to be raining anyway.
David Hocking isn’t running this time. In the last election he led the polls. I was part of the group that worked with David on what has become Bowen’s Sustainability Framework. While I don’t know if the report will ever live up to its mandate of providing overarching principals to guide future development on the Island, I can tell you that it was an amazing amount of work on the part of a number of very bright people. And, at the centre of it all, collating and editing and refining was David. He put in the time that was required to complete the job. If this concept seems obvious to you then you haven’t spent much time on volunteer committees. What usually happens is the project gets bogged down at some point or other and then flounders because nobody with the talent to keep things moving has the time to put into it. David had the talent and he took the time to see it through. That’s probably one reason why he’s not running again. He has to go back to making a living. Anyway, he’s a good man, he worked hard on council and our community owes him a debt of gratitude.
It is just me or do any of you feel just a little bit relieved that the global economy has gone bust? I know that I lost money on my investments. I know that business is going to slow down and I know that I’m not going to look back at the next little while with any nostalgia. But things were getting so out of line that a correction was sorely needed. And the longer the boom lasted, the worse the downturn was going to be. The insane price of oil was about to start a period of hyper-inflation, real estate prices had gotten away out of hand, and everything from ferry fares to the price of filling your gas tank just made you sure that something was wrong with the way things were going. Or was it just me?
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